The reason you shouldn’t ignore your weather app

In an increasingly warm climate, weather forecasts Accurate measurements will become increasingly important in reducing heat-related mortality, according to a joint study by the Columbia Universitythe University of Oregon and the University of Arizona, all in the United States.

The invisible shield you carry in your pocket

Accurate weather forecasts can help people adapt to extreme heat events, which are expected to increase with climate change, according to this work published in ‘Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences‘.

Researchers estimated the potential impact of weather forecasts accurate in heat-related mortality. The authors combined climate model projections with expert assessments of how the accuracy of temperature forecasts is likely to improve through the end of the century.

Analysis of mortality and weather data in the United States between 2004 and 2023 indicated that more accurate one-day forecasts reduced heat-related mortality, compared to hot days with less accurate forecasts.

A margin of error that is reduced by leaps and bounds

The accuracy of one-day forecasts improved by 34% between 2005 and 2023. Surveys of 48 weather forecasting experts in the United States revealed that forecast accuracy is expected to continue improving through 2100.

Planned improvements in weather forecasts could reduce annual heat-related mortality in the United States by approximately 18% by 2100, which is equivalent to 2,000 lives saved per year.

Rapid improvements, considered feasible by experts, could reduce annual heat-related mortality by 25%. The value of accurate forecasts increased even further under severe climate change scenarios.

According to the authors, maintaining Earth observation networks and investing in the development of weather models could reduce heat-related mortality associated with climate change.